Google, in case you’re unaware, is one of the most-powerful corporations to ever exist in the history of the human race. They make a-lot of money; they have their fingers in a-lot of pies, but their most-powerful asset is they have their finger on the pulse of the world; they know what people are thinking about, what they are passionate about.

What’s your point Skeet?
Get to the fucking point.

Let’s say a 60-minutes story runs about Bruce Jenner, and it captures the interest of many; millions and millions of people go to their computers and begin banging away at the google search box:
jenner sex change
jenner olympics
jenner caitlyn

Because google delivers all the answers: people seek google. Google, therefore, also knows all the questions, (and they also know who’s asking-)

Through this power google should be able to predict elections, stock prices, many things…

Google’s power in this arena is unmatched; is google abusing this power? Yes, (search:obama election 2012 eric schmidt,) but that’s another topic for another time…

Anyway, google has given everyday-pee-ons a piece of their analytical power:

https://www.google.com/trends/

Using this google-trends tool, everyday plantation-peasants (like you and me,) can see what’s being searched by “the masses” at any moment in time. I decided to play with this tool to see what I could discover about Trump and the 2016 race…


First some history from 2011-2012 Republican primaries:

Ron Paul – Mitt Romney – Newt Gingrich – Rick Santorum

ron paul

 

Ron blue – Mitt red – Newt yellow – Rick green

I inserted this bit of history to illustrate one point: a small, rabid minority can skew google-trends.

A hundred Ron Paul fanatics, for example, consuming Ron Paul news can give the appearance of domination. Ron Paul dominated google trends in 2011-2012, (even after he started losing primaries.)

Whatever your beliefs about Paul, one thing’s for certain, Ron Paul generated a-lot of buzz, a-lot of emotion-

I believe, with all my heart, if Ron had focussed on his core message: eliminate the income tax, cut government spending, protect civil liberties, end war, legalise marijuana, and if he had been a more-powerful speaker, he may have been able to harness this energy, and emotion, and generate a victory.

Instead, when Ron Paul got on the debate stage, or in an interview, Ron Paul talked about the gold standard, asset-bubbles, and other nonsense no-one cared about. Ron Paul spent his money attacking Newt Gingrich, knocking him out of the race, and insuring a Romney victory.

But, the past is the past, it’s time to move on.


Rand Paul – Ted Cruz – Marco Rubio – May – July 18, 2015

3 amigos

Rand is in blue – Ted in red – Marco in yellow.

The lines represent the amount of search queries on google involving each of the Republican candidates. The spikes represent headlines or news that generated interest in the three. I want to stress what’s unknown is how many individuals this represents, nor does it represent how they feel, either positive or negative.

In other words if Ted Cruz says something stupid, for example, many people who dislike him might search for what he said.

Additionally, if ten people are very interested in a candidate, they might search the candidate’s history, family, education, speeches, interviews etc…

So, we do not know the strengths of these campaigns, (because google keeps that information to themselves.) But, using google trends in combination with polls, headlines, data you can learn something about the relative strength of emotion surrounding a search term; does that make sense?

In other words, if one person searches Ted Cruz ten times, it’s the same amount of emotion as ten people searching one time.

As you can see, for the moment, in a three way race Cruz appears to have emotion on his side, (at least since July.)


Rand Paul – Ted Cruz – Marco Rubio – Jeb Bush – May – July 18, 2015

Rand Paul Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Google Trends

Rand Paul Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Google Trends

How the race was supposed to look. Jeb, (in green,) the establishment’s choice, the man who raised a hundred-million dollars without breaking a sweat- Jeb Bush was supposed-to have an easy race.


Rand Paul – Ted Cruz – Marco Rubio – Jeb Bush – Donald Trump – May – July 18, 2015

Rand Paul Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Donald Trump Google Trends

Rand Paul Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Donald Trump Google Trends

Holy shit batman!

Rand, Ted, Marco, Jeb, Donald Trump(in purple)
As you can see- Trump owns the emotion of this race. This graph is to scale!


Ben Carson – Donald Trump – May – July 18, 2015

Ben Carson vs Trump Google Trends

Ben Carson vs Trump Google Trends

Death Rattle.

Trump in red.

This shows the problem with running as a mid-tier candidate against Trump and his headline-generating machine, charisma, and message. I chose Ben Carson but every Republican candidate’s graph looks similar when compared one-on-one to Trump. If a candidate’s not in the top 10, the race is over for him/her after the first debate.

If Trump dominates the first debate, this race is over before the first primary.


Donald vs Scott – May – July 18, 2015

Scott who

Trump in blue.
All the king’s horses, and all the king’s men…

Scott who? Unless you’re a billionaire with your own headline-generating machine, might as well sit this race out.


Ted Cruz – Marco Rubio – Jeb Bush – Scott Walker – Donald Trump MEXICO – May – July 18, 2015

How mexico views the Republican field Google Trends

How mexico views the Republican field Google Trends

What candidate do Mexican-illegals fear? This is who people in Mexico are looking at in this race. Trump (in purple) is the only candidate making news in Mexico.


Donald Trump – Hillary Clinton – Bernie Sanders – May – July 18, 2015

donald vs hillary and bernie Google Trends

donald vs hillary and bernie Google Trends

Hillary’s in trouble; (that yellow line is the socialist Bernie Sanders.) Again this is not a poll, but it does show the bernie’s campaign has emotion, energy and life. Trump(blue) is still dominating though.


Donald Trump – Hillary Clinton -May – July 18, 2015

Trump vs Clinton Google Trends

Trump vs Clinton Google Trends

This doesn’t mean a-whole lot, again, many Dems are not active in this race, Hillary does not have to campaign very hard to win. So, come “race-time,” if Hillary and Donald survive… We’ll have to wait and see…


Conclusions.

Again, google trends, our sliver of a window into the power google has, (to gage the emotions of the world; to know what interests the world,) gives us a small peak at the power Trump has right now, and the real problem his opponents face.

What can bring down Trump?

Donald Trump can generate his own headlines, Trump’s persuasive, charismatic, and can generate emotion; Trump’s a salesman; seen as honest; Trump can run as an outsider, (it’s not a good time to be a member of congress.) Trump has his own press, and he has his own money.

What can bring down Trump?

If he says something or does something really unforgivable.

A real scandal.

I do not see a challenger in the race who can knock him out. The press and most of his opponents hammered him, day and night, for weeks, and the result was Trump’s poll numbers went through the roof!

FOXNEWS POLL

trumprising

© 2015 Author Richard Skeet

 

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Comments
  1. […] Fox News tried it during the debates. They bashed Donald Trump before, during and after. They used phony focus groups. They’ve written volumes of articles, yet, Donald Trump’s momentum grows: […]

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  2. […] Fox News tried it during the debates. They bashed Donald Trump before, during and after. They used phony focus groups. They’ve written volumes of articles, yet, Donald Trump’s momentum grows: […]

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