Nate Silver Sucks At Math; Chance of a Donald Trump Victory Over 99%!

Posted: November 7, 2016 in FRONT PAGE, SKEET

The “Blue Wall” has cracks in it, and everyone knows it. This election is not like 2012, it’s more like 2014, (a republican landslide.)

2016 VS 2012:

  • In 2012, Obama, a sitting president, a man with dark pigmented skin, ran against a white mormon. This led to massive, galvanized, African American participation and mediocre white turnout.
  • In 2016 we have a failed, crooked, sickly, unlikeable, globalist female; running against an accomplished, honest, high-energy, charismatic, all-american male. All signs point to huge voter turnout for the GOP, and lackluster turnout for the RATS.

For many reasons, Donald Trump is within striking distance of crooked Hillary Clinton in MANY blue states; it’s my belief he’s even stronger than the polls represent due to the Bradley Effect, and oversampling of democrats based on 2012 turnout models that no-longer apply. But, lets assume Nate Silver’s 538 is correct about nearly everything… Assume Donald Trump has the state by state odds they, (the 538 pundits,) represent in their model.

screen-shot-2016-11-06-at-10-21-48-pm

Nate Silver believes Donald Trump has only a 35% chance of winning?
BULLSHIT!

First: the Romney Map:

screen-shot-2016-11-06-at-10-24-17-pm

According to 538 and Nate Silver’s own experts, Donald Trump is currently winning in EVERY state Romney won AND Trump has successfully added: Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Nevada. Electoral votes: 18 +29 + 6 +6= 59, for a grand total of 265. Nice.

screen-shot-2016-11-06-at-11-30-45-pm

What about these other states? Donald Trump must have no chance right? Nate Silver believes Donald Trump has only a 35% chance of winning the whole thing. Truth?

According to Nate’s “experts” Donald Trump has the following low odds, in these 11 “Blue Wall” states:

  1. Minnesota- 20%
  2. Wisconsin- 22%
  3. Michigan- 23%
  4. Pennsylvania- 26%
  5. Virginia-18%
  6. New Hampshire- 39%
  7. Maine- 23%
  8. Colorado-28%
  9. New Mexico-19%
  10. Washington- 3%
  11. Oregon-8%

Low odds, below 50/50 in 11 states equals only a 35% chance of victory? Weird. Picture rolling a die 11 times, how often would you expect a “6” to show up? (Answer 17% per dice roll.)

I’d argue the odds are MUCH higher in these individual states, but what the hell? Let’s run the numbers based on his exaggeratedly low percentages.

Want to play a fun game?

Roll the dice with Nate Silver’s odds, MMMKAY? See what you, personally, come up with.

Here’s a random number generator, https://www.random.org. It’s basically an electronic die with 100 sides. Hit the generate button, a number between 1 and 100 appears.

11 states listed above, with the slim odds for a Donald Trump victory printed beside each state. Hillary Clinton has to defend all of these states against “the monster vote,” as you can see, the odds per state are in her favor. BUT, when you roll the dice 11 times, the odds are definitely NOT in her favor.

For each of the 11 states listed, go through each of them, in order,
using a random number generator.
Follow this link, it will open a new window. https://www.random.org

  1. For example state 1 is Minnesota- 20%. Hit the GENERATE button, (The random number generator code will create a number between 1 and 100; if 20 or below comes up as the result: that’s an unlikely Trump victory in Minnesota. If 21 or higher, that’s a CROOKED Hillary victory.) Don’t be discouraged! run through all 11 states!
  2. Run through all 11 states, recording all the states Trump wins. (should only be a few.)
  3. (Optional: when Donald Trump wins an above mentioned state, pretend it’s election night, pretend the state is called, and yell at the top of your lungs: “Donald Trump just won [STATE NAME]!”
  4. When finished running all 11 states, go to my custom electoral college map, and turn the states Trump wins in your simulation red. (It will automatically generate a total for you. http://www.270towin.com/maps/D36pp

There. Feel better now? Now go out and vote!

PS: I’m very good at math. You can run this simulation 100s of times and get a new, different Trump victory in almost all of them. Odds of Donald Trump winning based on an average of 21% odds with 11 attempts over 99%!

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Comments
  1. rnowtrman says:

    Great information….keep the faith!!

    Liked by 2 people

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